After a 1-2 quarter lag, the economic turbulence being experienced in the rest of the world has now reached the Asia Pacific region in full force. Heavily reliant on their manufacturing and exporting industries, Asian economies are seeing sizable, even historic, contraction, as global demand for goods produced in the region has plummeted. Several countries, including Japan, Taiwan and Thailand, reported negative GDP growth in Q4 2008. The blockbuster economies of China and India still expect positive GDP growth this year, however the rate of growth will be significantly slower, falling to rates not seen since earlier in the decade. LE expects the macroeconomic indicators to continue trending downward into 2010.
The travel and lodging industries are experiencing significant collateral damage in this environment. Published industry reports indicate that year over year (YoY) occupancy levels for the region have been in decline throughout 2007 and 2008. Beginning in September 2008, guestroom demand, occupancy, ADR and RevPAR accelerated downward as the full fury of the global recession began to take hold in most markets throughout the region.
At the end of Q4 2008, Asia Pacific's Total Construction Pipeline stood at 1,891 projects/437,374 rooms. Total projects are down 15% and total rooms are off by 14% from the cyclical peak in Q2 2008. The Pipeline is decelerating at a greater rate than in almost any other global region largely due to a rapid fall-off in China. With rising Cancellations and fewer New Project Announcements expected, LE forecasts that the Asia Pacific Pipeline will contract further and not bottom out until 2011 at the earliest.
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Launched in 1995 with the encouragement of Wall Street analysts and many Lodging Industry leaders, Lodging Econometrics (LE) is the recognized authority on all hotel real estate including the Development Pipeline and the Sale and Transfer of Lodging Real Estate nationwide. LE also compiles and maintains the Industry's Census of Open and Operating Hotels including the Names of Owners & Management for more than 60,000 hotels in the U.S. and Canada.
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