World tourism holds 2002 pace despite war, SARS and terrorism: WTO head

Sep 05, 03 | 11:28 am

World tourism this year appears set to approach the levels of 2002 despite the war in Iraq, terrorist attacks and the SARS epidemic, the head of the World Tourism Organization said Wednesday.

"I'm expecting a modest summer season, roughly the same as last year," said Francesco Frangialli, secretary general of the Madrid-based organization, in an interview with AFP.

In 2002, Frangialli said, 715 million tourist arrivals represented a "reasonable" 3.1 percent growth over 2001, when tourism declined by 0.6 percent in the wake of the September 11 terror attacks in the United States.

Frangialli warned against drawing up a balance sheet before the year is over, saying that he will not consider the summer ended until after the second or third week of September.

"The market has clearly become more volatile," he said. "There are last- minute cancellations and last-minute decisions," while the season itself has become longer.

For the whole of 2003, Frangialli predicted a growth of between zero and three percent from last year, depending on recovery in Asia and the end of the peak tourist season in Europe and the Mediterranean countries in September.

The SARS epidemic had an "extremely violent" impact on Asian destinations, but this was followed by a "spectacular recovery" in the region and was likely to be followed by "very strong" growth in the second half of the year, Frangialli said.

Europe, which accounts for 60 percent of the world tourist market, presented uneven results. Spain continued to grab a growing share of the market year after year, he said, while Italy was less affected by the falloff in American tourists than last year.

Turkey had a very bad second quarter, but was likely to have improved during the summer, Frangialli said.

As for France, the world's number one tourist destination, "the start of the season was very mediocre, very slack, at least as far as foreign tourists were concerned," he said. "But, here again, I think the end of the season will make the difference."

He said it was hard to assess the effect of the heatwave in Europe. The cooler French mountains had not benefited because tourists were still thinking of the poor weather there a year ago, he explained.

On the other hand, the beaches of the North Sea, the English Channel and the Baltic profited strongly from the heatwave.

The terrorist attacks in Morocco and Indonesia had differing effects, Frangialli said.

"In the case of Morocco, the impact was not as disastrous as some people had predicted because it was not the tourist destinations that were targeted, contrary to the attacks in Djerba in Tunisia or against the Marriott hotel in Jakarta," he said.

Tourism in the United States suffered because of tougher security measures, he said.

Frangialli said the dollar's weakness against the euro had not succeeded in offsetting the image of a country "fixated on security."

"On one hand, that reassures tourists... but at the same time it highlights the problem."

"I'm expecting a modest summer season, roughly the same as last year," said Francesco Frangialli, secretary general of the Madrid-based organization, in an interview with AFP.

In 2002, Frangialli said, 715 million tourist arrivals represented a "reasonable" 3.1 percent growth over 2001, when tourism declined by 0.6 percent in the wake of the September 11 terror attacks in the United States.

Frangialli warned against drawing up a balance sheet before the year is over, saying that he will not consider the summer ended until after the second or third week of September.

"The market has clearly become more volatile," he said. "There are last- minute cancellations and last-minute decisions," while the season itself has become longer.

For the whole of 2003, Frangialli predicted a growth of between zero and three percent from last year, depending on recovery in Asia and the end of the peak tourist season in Europe and the Mediterranean countries in September.

The SARS epidemic had an "extremely violent" impact on Asian destinations, but this was followed by a "spectacular recovery" in the region and was likely to be followed by "very strong" growth in the second half of the year, Frangialli said.

Europe, which accounts for 60 percent of the world tourist market, presented uneven results. Spain continued to grab a growing share of the market year after year, he said, while Italy was less affected by the falloff in American tourists than last year.

Turkey had a very bad second quarter, but was likely to have improved during the summer, Frangialli said.

As for France, the world's number one tourist destination, "the start of the season was very mediocre, very slack, at least as far as foreign tourists were concerned," he said. "But, here again, I think the end of the season will make the difference."

He said it was hard to assess the effect of the heatwave in Europe. The cooler French mountains had not benefited because tourists were still thinking of the poor weather there a year ago, he explained.

On the other hand, the beaches of the North Sea, the English Channel and the Baltic profited strongly from the heatwave.

The terrorist attacks in Morocco and Indonesia had differing effects, Frangialli said.

"In the case of Morocco, the impact was not as disastrous as some people had predicted because it was not the tourist destinations that were targeted, contrary to the attacks in Djerba in Tunisia or against the Marriott hotel in Jakarta," he said.

Tourism in the United States suffered because of tougher security measures, he said.

Frangialli said the dollar's weakness against the euro had not succeeded in offsetting the image of a country "fixated on security."

"On one hand, that reassures tourists... but at the same time it highlights the problem."

"I'm expecting a modest summer season, roughly the same as last year," said Francesco Frangialli, secretary general of the Madrid-based organization, in an interview with AFP.

In 2002, Frangialli said, 715 million tourist arrivals represented a "reasonable" 3.1 percent growth over 2001, when tourism declined by 0.6 percent in the wake of the September 11 terror attacks in the United States.

Frangialli warned against drawing up a balance sheet before the year is over, saying that he will not consider the summer ended until after the second or third week of September.

"The market has clearly become more volatile," he said. "There are last- minute cancellations and last-minute decisions," while the season itself has become longer.

For the whole of 2003, Frangialli predicted a growth of between zero and three percent from last year, depending on recovery in Asia and the end of the peak tourist season in Europe and the Mediterranean countries in September.

The SARS epidemic had an "extremely violent" impact on Asian destinations, but this was followed by a "spectacular recovery" in the region and was likely to be followed by "very strong" growth in the second half of the year, Frangialli said.

Europe, which accounts for 60 percent of the world tourist market, presented uneven results. Spain continued to grab a growing share of the market year after year, he said, while Italy was less affected by the falloff in American tourists than last year.

Turkey had a very bad second quarter, but was likely to have improved during the summer, Frangialli said.

As for France, the world's number one tourist destination, "the start of the season was very mediocre, very slack, at least as far as foreign tourists were concerned," he said. "But, here again, I think the end of the season will make the difference."

He said it was hard to assess the effect of the heatwave in Europe. The cooler French mountains had not benefited because tourists were still thinking of the poor weather there a year ago, he explained.

On the other hand, the beaches of the North Sea, the English Channel and the Baltic profited strongly from the heatwave.

The terrorist attacks in Morocco and Indonesia had differing effects, Frangialli said.

"In the case of Morocco, the impact was not as disastrous as some people had predicted because it was not the tourist destinations that were targeted, contrary to the attacks in Djerba in Tunisia or against the Marriott hotel in Jakarta," he said.

Tourism in the United States suffered because of tougher security measures, he said.

Frangialli said the dollar's weakness against the euro had not succeeded in offsetting the image of a country "fixated on security."

"On one hand, that reassures tourists... but at the same time it highlights the problem."