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Hotel Lawyer with PKF's "US Lodging Market Outlook" - What if we hit the Fiscal Cliff? What if we postpone it? Recession in 2013?

Oct 22, 12 | 12:02 am

By Jim Butler and the Global Hospitality Group®

What happens to the hospitality industry with certain likely political and economic scenarios?

Here is another insightful analysis of hotel industry performance and forecast. But unlike many industry analysts, Mark Woodworth and his team at PKF Hospitality Research forecast the effect of how Washington deals with the "fiscal cliff" deadline and related budget issues.

What happens if the automatic budget cuts currently the law of the land kick in because Congress can't agree on an alternative course of action? What happens if they "kick the cliff down the road."?

The results may surprise you. One scenario likely leads to a recession in the first half of 2013, but in any event Woodworth and his PKF team say " Under all scenarios considered, 2014 will be a great year for the industry. It remains a great time to be investing capital in the industry."

PKF presentation and highlights on US Lodging Outlook

We asked Mark Woodworth to summarize a few of the key thoughts he presented at The Lodging Conference in Phoenix a few days, ago and here is what he said:

1. Industry fundamentals will continue to move in a positive direction, although the pace of improvement has begun to moderate. This will persist through most of 2013; unless
2. The fiscal cliff becomes a reality. In this case, recession hits in Q1 2013 and industry RevPAR for the year will be flat (see slides in the attached deck that address the "Fiscal Cliff" and "Kick the Cliff" scenarios.
3. If our leadership in Washington "Kicks the Cliff" down the road, 2013 will actually be better than our expected case scenario, although the longer term outlook for the overall economy is diminished.
4. Under all scenarios considered, 2014 will be a great year for the industry. It remains a great time to be investing capital in the industry.

For a full copy of Mark's presentation, please see www.HotelLawyer.com/Resource Center/Hotel Industry Presentations, or click here.

Mr. Woodworth is an Executive Vice President of PKF Consulting ("PKF/C"), and President of PKF Hospitality Research, an affiliate of PKF/C. Mr. Woodworth is based in the Atlanta office of PKF/C. Mr. Woodworth is responsible for all of PKF/C's activities in the Southeast and Caribbean.

Mr. Woodworth is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and a lecturer at Cornell University and Georgia State University, among others. He serves on the Board of Directors of the Atlanta Convention & Visitors Bureau, the Finance Committee of the United Way of Metropolitan Atlanta and the Council at the Henderson Mill Elementa.

This is Jim Butler, author of www.HotelLawBlog.com and hotel lawyer, signing off. We've done more than $60 billion of hotel transactions and have developed innovative solutions to unlock value from hotels. Who's your hotel lawyer?

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Our Perspective. We represent hotel lenders, owners and investors. We have helped our clients find business and legal solutions for more than $60 billion of hotel transactions, involving more than 1,300 properties all over the world. For more information, please contact Jim Butler at jbutler@jmbm.com or +1 (310) 201-3526.

Jim Butler is a founding partner of JMBM, and Chairman of its Global Hospitality Group® and Chinese Investment Group_^TM. Jim is one of the top hospitality attorneys in the world. GOOGLE "hotel lawyer" and you will see why.

Jim and his team are more than "just" great hotel lawyers. They are also hospitality consultants and business advisors. They are deal makers. They can help find the right operator or capital provider. They know who to call and how to reach them.