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Newsletter - May 9, 2003

CNL Hospitality to buy RFS Hotel for $383 mln

(Reuters) - Hotel owner CNL Hospitality Corp. said on Thursday it reached a deal to buy RFS Hotel Investors Inc. or about $383 million in cash in a move that would nearly double the number of hotels its owns.

CNL Hospitality, a privately held real estate investment trust based in Orlando, Florida, said it would pay $12.35 a share for RFS, an 11 percent premium over the closing price of $11.10 Thursday on the New York Stock Exchange.

The company, which is an affiliate of CNL Financial Group, will also assume about $305 million of debt held by Memphis-based RFS. The companies hope to complete the transaction early in the third quarter.

Combined, the two REITs will own 120 hotel properties, operating under 18 different brand names, in 35 states.

CNL Hospitality currently owns interests in 63 hotels under such names as Marriott and Doubletree, while RFS owns 57 hotels in 24 states under names like Sheraton and Holiday Inn.

Separately, the two companies also said CNL Hospitality would acquire an additional one million newly issued RFS shares for $12.35 in cash within 24 hours after the deal closes. The companies did not immediately comment on who would receive the proceeds of that payment, or why the share acquisition was being conducted as a separate transaction.

RFS recently reported a difficult first quarter, during which it lost $1.7 million as total hotel revenue declined 5 percent to $44.6 million. The company blamed the results on reduced travel activity during the war in Iraq and a previous decision to undertake a substantial portion of its 2003 capital expenditures during the first quarter.

However, both companies hinted they expect better days ahead for the hospitality industry.

"With relatively little additional supply expected in the next several years and stabilizing demand, we believe that the long-term outlook for the industry remains favorable," said John Griswold, CNL Hospitality's president.

Flagstone Hospitality Management, a subsidiary of Interstate Hotels and Resorts Inc. IHR.N , will continue to manage a majority of RFS's hotel portfolio following the deal.

Bank of America is providing CNL Hospitality secured financing to fund a significant portion of the purchase price, the company said. Bank of America also acted as the company's financial advisor on the transaction, while Greenberg Traurig provided legal counsel.

Credit Suisse First Boston and Morgan Keegan & Co. provided RFS financial advice while Hunton & Williams provided legal advice.

Four Seasons Q1 loss $9.3M; revenue cut 5.5% by SARS, weakening US

(CP) - Four Seasons Hotels Inc. is trying to cut costs while maintaining its de luxe status after suffering a $9.3-million first-quarter loss, afflicted by war in Iraq, the feeble U.S. dollar, SARS and general weakness in high-expense travel.

January-March revenue fell 5.5 per cent from a year ago, to $61 million from $64.6 million, the company reported Thursday. The $9.3-million loss, 27 cents per share, was down from a profit of $7.7 million, 21 cents per share, in the first full quarter after the Sept. 11 terrorist calamity.

In the latest quarter "the travel industry faced many challenges, including a weak economic environment, military conflict in Iraq, heightened terrorist alerts and concerns regarding severe acute respiratory syndrome in certain regions," commented Isadore Sharp, chairman and CEO of Four Seasons.

"These challenges negatively affected our current results, but we remain confident about our short-term and our long-term plans and are firm in our commitment to expand the Four Seasons network."

Sharp did not check in on a conference call with analysts, leaving chief financial officer Douglas Ludwig to report overall occupancy in April of just 55 per cent, down from the expected 65 per cent.

Four Seasons hotels in Asia, hardest hit by SARS, had 39 per cent of their rooms occupied.

The company is seeking to reduce expenses with "changes that will not affect the guest experience or the long-term integrity of our pricing strategy," Ludwig said.

Staff costs, he said, "are being reduced through attrition, holiday-taking, voluntary leaves, sabbaticals, job-sharing and in some circumstances staff reductions."

At almost all properties "the booking window remains very short," Ludwig said. Most guests are reserving only a week or two before their arrival, and this makes travel trend forecasts "virtually impossible."

Amid "formidable and extraordinarily unique operating conditions," he added, Four Seasons has maintained its lofty room rates and outperformed its competitors.

The quarter produced a non-cash foreign-exchange loss of $8.3 million as a result of the weaker American dollar.

There also was a $4.6-million expense to cover litigation around hotels in Caracas and Seattle.

SARS hit Four Seasons properties in Singapore, Shanghai and Toronto in the final two weeks of the quarter and "the impact of SARS on travel during the second quarter of 2003 is difficult to predict," Ludwig stated.

"While the company's four properties in the destinations noted continue to be the most affected, SARS is disrupting travel generally throughout Asia/Pacific, with the exception of Sydney and the resort in the Maldives."

Four Seasons shares (TSX:FSH) traded down $1.04 to $47.08 as the morning conference call concluded.

The stock has a 52-week high and low of $80 and $36.25.

TIA Traveler Sentiment Index Down Only Slightly In Second Quarter 2003 

The war in Iraq had little impact on traveler sentiment, with the Travel Industry Association of America's (TIA) Traveler Sentiment Index down only slightly in second quarter 2003.

The overall index now stands at 95.7, down from 97.1 in first quarter 2003. Consumers feel that travel is very affordable right now; however, they continue to be concerned about having enough money to take a trip, most likely an indication of their uneasiness over the state of the economy. Consumers also are very concerned about having the time available to travel, which may explain the slight drop in interest in taking a pleasure trip. The uncertainty created by these factors is probably contributing to the current late booking patterns seen throughout the travel industry. The survey took place April 3 - 13.

General consumer interest in taking pleasure trips declined slightly from 97.8 last quarter to 94.6 this quarter. However, this is still significantly above the all-time low seen in the fourth quarter of 2001 (80.3). Consumer perceptions of the affordability of pleasure travel is up 4.8 percent from last quarter to 117.6. This index is still holding strong, likely due to continued industry discounting during the months leading up to and including the war in Iraq.

With the economic uncertainty of today, travelers' perceptions of the ability to take pleasure trips based on their personal finances have not recovered since reaching a high of 108.2 in the second quarter of 2000. Still, this component of the TSI index—at 81.9—is up marginally over last quarter, and continues an upswing from fourth quarter 2002. The index for consumer perceptions of service quality received while traveling now stands at 103.9, up 3.3 percent from last quarter and slightly above average for this index.



Due to industry concerns about the effects of September 11, 2001, a question on travel safety was added to the TIA Travel Survey starting in the fourth quarter of 2001. This quarter, the Travel Safety Index—at 128.3—is at an all time high and up 28 percent from fourth quarter 2001.

The overall Traveler Sentiment Index for Baby Boomers (age 35 to 54) declined notably (5%), due to significant concerns among this segment about not having the time or money to travel. As a result, Boomers continue to feel less confident about the affordability of travel. Generation X and Y (age 18 to 34) travelers currently feel that travel is very affordable; however, their index measuring the ability to travel based on time available is at its lowest point-to-date.

When the overall Traveler Sentiment Index is examined on a regional basis, the Northeast shows the strongest gain over first quarter 2003, followed by the Midwest. The overall index for the South shows a substantial decline, while the West remains stable.

Members of the media can obtain TIA's latest Traveler Sentiment Index report, including additional analysis and charts for each index, by sending an e-mail to ckeefe@tia.org.

NOTE: TIA's quarterly Traveler Sentiment Index (TSI) is conducted four times per year and is a running gauge of consumers' interest in leisure travel and their perceived ability to travel. The study consists of five criteria: interest, time, finances, affordability, and service quality. The TSI is based on quarterly interviews with approximately 1,000 U.S. adults who have taken at least one trip in the past year. Each criterion is measured individually and then combined to create an overall index score. The baseline year for the Index is the year 2000.


TIA is the national, non-profit organization representing all components of the $537 billion travel industry. TIA's mission is to represent the whole of the U.S. travel industry to promote and facilitate increased travel to and within the United States.

News@PATA

DE JONG URGES “QUICK AND EFFECTIVE” COMMUNICATION AGAINST SARS IMPACT

PATA President and CEO, Mr. Peter de Jong, sent an urgent message to PATA members and the media on April 30, after attending a press briefing in Bangkok by World Health Organization Executive Director, Dr. David Heymann. "It is essential that this reassurance is communicated onwards throughout our industry and to the public," de Jong wrote. Dr. Heymann had reassured the April 28 briefing that travel was as safe as ever now that appropriate screening and prevention measures were in place. The full text of Mr. de Jong's message, which has received strong media coverage and support, can be found at http://www.pata.org/prreport.cfm?pageid=12&pressid=248.

PATA UPLOADS INFORMATION RESOURCES AGAINST SARS IMPACT

As long as common sense and statistical evidence show that people can safely resume normal travel patterns, PATA will continue to call for the resumption of travel within Pacific Asia. To assist PATA members in their battle against the publics’ unwarranted fear of travel, PATA has uploaded a SARS information kit, which includes contributions by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) and Abacus (www.travelsmart-asia.com). The information aims to put the SARS outbreak into perspective and show that, with a few sensible precautions, it is safe to travel. Please visit www.pata.org.

IATA CONDUCTS SURVEY OF BUSINESS TRAVELLERS’ CONCERNS ABOUT SARS

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) is conducting a survey of business travellers to find out what their main concerns are about SARS and travel. The results of the survey will assist in the industry’s fight against the SARS impact. Please direct respondents to the survey questionnaire at http://www.zoomerang.com/survey.zgi?HAK840DJGB9BS21WMBGQ7LME.

SEMONE MEETS WITH HONG KONG SAR TOURISM AUTHORITIES

PATA Vice President, Mr. Peter Semone, made a lightning visit to Hong Kong SAR last week while on a teaching trip to Macau SAR. He met with the Deputy Commissioner for Tourism, Mr. Duncan Pescod, and Hong Kong Tourism Board (HKTB) Executive Director, Ms. Clara Chong, from whom he learned of the local industry’s SARS recovery plans. “There has been an ongoing exchange of ideas between the trade and HKTB,” Mr. Semone said. “My impression is that there is close collaboration among industry members in Hong Kong.” The SARS outbreak appears to have peaked, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). “There is a declining number of new cases and an increasing number of patients who have recovered,” Mr. Semone said. “WHO environmental health experts are now in the city to help identify the cause of the outbreak.” On life in the administrative region, Mr. Semone commented: “The government’s stringent SARS-prevention measures are obviously having a positive effect on people's confidence.

SEMONE MEETS WITH MACAU GOVERNMENT TOURIST OFFICE CHIEF

PATA Vice President, Mr. Peter Semone, while on a teaching mission in Macau SAR, met with Director of the Macau Government Tourist Office (MGTO), Mr. Joao Costa Antunes. Macau SAR has only reported one suspected case of SARS. “There is a high level of screening of arriving and departing travellers to Macau SAR,” Mr. Semone said. “The destination has done very well to limit both the medical and economic impacts of the virus.”

DE JONG TO PARTICIPATE IN GLOBAL INDUSTRY SUMMIT

PATA President and CEO, Mr. Peter de Jong, will participate in the 3rd Global Travel and Tourism Summit in Vilamoura, Portugal, May 15-17, 2003. Organised by the World Travel and Tourism Council, the event’s main objective is to help the industry rebuild confidence in the face of war, terrorism, disease and economic slowdown. Mr. de Jong will moderate the session “Breakout Summit 2: Emerging Economies” on May 15. Other confirmed speakers include former astronaut, Mr. Neil Armstrong, and former US Assistant Secretary of State, Mr. James Rubin. For more information, please visit www.globaltraveltourism.com.

PATA AND PADI ASIA PACIFIC ANNOUNCE MARKETING PARTNERSHIP

PATA and the Asia Pacific office of the Professional Association of Diving Instructors (PADI) have formed a new marketing alliance. The partnership will boost dive tourism to the Pacific Asia region and increase the profile of the dive travel niche at the 26th PATA Travel Mart, October 1-3, 2003 in Singapore. The 2003 Mart will focus on niche travel markets such as diving. PADI’s participation will include exhibits from dive operators, attendance by sellers of dive travel and presentations on selling dive travel. For the full announcement, please visit http://www.pata.org/prreport.cfm?pageid=12&pressid=247. For more information on PATA Travel Mart, please visit http://www.pata.org/frame.cfm?pageid=2&ebid=37.

DAVID SUZUKI’S CONFERENCE NOTES ON PATANET

Regrettably, award-winning scientist, environmentalist and broadcaster, Dr. David Suzuki, had to cancel his participation at the 52nd PATA Annual Conference in Bali. However, many delegates who listened to Dr. Suzuki’s presentation at a previous Conference asked about what he was going to talk about in Bali. Dr. Suzuki has been kind enough to send in the preparatory notes he wrote for the 52nd PATA Annual Conference. Please visit www.pata.org.

PATA STRATEGIC INTELLIGENCE CENTRE WORLDWATCH -- THE SARS IMPACT ON DESTINATIONS

** Thailand expects a drop of around 700,000 in international visitor arrivals during 2003.

** Singapore arrivals were down 67 percent in April. Hotel occupancy is currently at 20-30 percent. It is usually 70-80 percent.

** Australia arrivals were down 20 percent in April. Australia stands to lose between AUD$1-2 billion because of the virus.

** Asian traffic to the USA is down. Japanese arrivals to Hawaii were down 23.5 percent in April, while bookings for May and June are down 36.5 percent and 33.3 percent respectively.

** Arrivals from Hong Kong SAR and Chinese Taipei to Malaysia are down 90 percent while there were virtually no visitors from China (PRC). Average daily turnover at Genting Bhd’s coffee shop has fallen from US$4,700 to US$260 as fewer punters visit Malaysia’s Genting Highlands.

ON AIRLINES

** Dragonair has delayed delivery of four Airbus aircraft because of SARS-induced low demand.

**Cathay Pacific Airways, while holding talks with both Boeing and Airbus about delaying the delivery of aircraft, is also planning to park 16 surplus aircraft in Avalon, Australia.

** KLM reports that its April load factor dropped 6.8 percent year-on-year to 74 percent in the wake of the SARS outbreak. Traffic on KLM’s Pacific Asia routes dropped 24 percent.

** Vietnam Airlines is looking to slash international air fares by as much as 50 percent in a bid to win back travellers put off by the SARS outbreak.

** Air NZ has cancelled 14 more Auckland­Hong Kong SAR flights due to low loads because of SARS.

ON BUSINESS TRAVEL

** Businesses are turning to alternate media for meetings. Internet traffic in Thailand has grown steadily since the SARS outbreak. Online usage in March was 989.9 GB, while in April it rose to 1,057 GB, as businesses adopted Internet-based teleconferencing tools.

ON FINANCE AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

** Spending on Visa Cards has dropped by 16 percent across Pacific Asia as fewer people travel.

** S&P warns that banks in Hong Kong SAR and Singapore could face profit declines of 45 percent and 25 percent, respectively, if the SARS outbreak continues for too much longer.

** SARS is expected to shave 0.10 percent off global economic growth this year

Winston Hotels Reports First Quarter 2003 Results

/Business Wire/  -  Winston Hotels, Inc. (NYSE: WXH), a real estate investment trust (REIT) and owner of premium limited-service, upscale extended-stay and full-service hotels, today announced results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2003.

Net loss to common shareholders was $(0.2) million for the three months ended March 31, 2003, or $(0.01) per share, compared to $(2.8) million for the three months ended March 31, 2002, or $(0.16) per share. Funds from operations (FFO) decreased 16.5 percent to $4.2 million for the 2003 first quarter, compared to $5.0 million for the like period a year earlier. On a per share basis, FFO declined 25.9 percent to $0.20 for the first quarter on 21.4 million weighted average shares outstanding, compared to $0.27 on 18.5 million weighted average shares outstanding for the same period a year earlier.

"The sluggish economy continues to heavily influence corporate business travel," said Bob Winston, chief executive officer. "The build-up and start of the Iraq War and the highly publicized outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), made both business and leisure travelers more skittish. This combination of events put tremendous pressure on the entire hospitality industry during the quarter."


Occupancy for the 2003 first quarter rose to 62.7 percent from 62.3 percent in the 2002 first quarter, while average daily room rate (ADR) declined 4.5 percent, placing greater pressure on operating margins. Revenue per available room (RevPAR) decreased 3.9 percent in the 2003 first quarter from the same quarter in 2002.

The company calculates FFO by using the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts' (NAREIT) definition, and further adjusts for changes in deferred revenue, preferred share distributions, deferred income taxes and other unusual and non-recurring transactions. This calculation of FFO may differ from other reporting companies and as such the presentation of FFO by the company may not be comparable to other similarly titled measures of other reporting companies. Some reporting companies have adopted the NAREIT definition of FFO. Due to the acquisition of the company's leasehold interests from Interstate Hotels and Resorts in July 2002, the company believes that the adoption of the NAREIT definition of FFO would not result in a meaningful comparison, and would not be an accurate reflection of the operating activity of the quarter ended March 31, 2003 compared with the quarter ended March 31, 2002. This is primarily due to significant amounts of deferred revenue which accrued throughout the first two quarters of 2002 and were recognized in the third quarter of 2002 pursuant to SAB 101. The company plans to adopt the NAREIT definition of FFO when the company believes that the figures will result in a meaningful comparison between periods presented.

Operating Results

Due to the acquisition in July 2002 of the company's leasehold interests from Interstate Hotels and Resorts, the results of operations for the first quarter ended March 31, 2003, compared to the results of operations for the same 2002 period, do not offer a meaningful comparison. This is due primarily to recording the operating results of the hotels on the company's statements of operations beginning in the third quarter of 2002.

In an effort to make a more meaningful comparison between periods, the company has provided below selected actual financial information for the three months ended March 31, 2003 compared with selected unaudited pro forma financial information for the three months ended March 31, 2002, as if the acquisition of the leasehold interests from Interstate occurred on January 1, 2002. This information is shown for the 47 hotels that were open during the periods presented and does not include operating results for any hotels that have been sold.
 
"While we were pleased with the improvement in occupancy, room rate continues to decline, placing significant pressure on margins," said Joe Green, chief financial officer. "We are working closely with our operators to control costs. Although margins dropped 4 percentage points for the quarter, they improved on a month-over-month basis in February and March, with the latter showing improvements, compared to budget expectations. Margin enhancement remains one of our primary focuses."

Financial Highlights

-- Total debt to EBITDA multiple was 3.8 on a trailing 12-month basis

-- Annual interest coverage ratio multiple was 4.0 on a trailing 12-month basis

-- Closed the quarter with consolidated debt to total assets at cost of 30.1 percent

-- Generated an unleveraged return on investment of 9.1 percent on its hotel portfolio on a trailing 12-month basis. Based upon the company's leverage and borrowing costs, the company realized a leveraged return on investment of 10.4 percent on a trailing 12-month basis.

-- FFO payout ratio was 55.6 percent on a trailing 12-month basis.

-- On a total portfolio basis, operating margins declined from 42.6 percent in the 2002 first quarter to 38.6 percent in the 2003 first quarter.

-- Based on information provided by Smith Travel Research, first quarter 2003 RevPAR yield for Winston's portfolio was 109 percent, which indicates that the company's portfolio achieved disproportionately greater RevPAR than the competition.

"We have an active acquisition pipeline of properties to which we believe we can add value through re-branding or substantial capital renovation through our joint venture with Charlesbank Capital. Additionally, our pipeline of opportunities to place quality debt on selected hotels is developing nicely. Hotel transactions like these, however, are very complex, and timing is difficult to predict," Green said.

Dividend Performance

During the 2003 first quarter, Winston Hotels declared a regular cash dividend of $0.15 per common share, which is equivalent to $0.60 per common share on an annualized basis. Also in the first quarter, the company declared a regular quarterly cash dividend to preferred shareholders of $0.578125 per share. "Our dividend remains equal to 2002 payments, and we currently do not anticipate any change in our 2003 dividend policy," Green added.

Guidance and Outlook

"With the Iraq War apparently winding down and lower terrorist alert levels, we are hopeful that the pace of travel will begin to show signs of improvement," Green remarked.

"It is still too early to tell when the economy and hotel industry will begin to rebound, but we sense a fair amount of pent-up demand. Based on our operators' estimates for the 2003 second quarter, RevPAR is targeted to be within a range of negative 3 percent to flat, compared to the 2002 second quarter, and flat to positive 2 percent for full-year 2003 compared to full-year 2002. FFO per share for the 2003 second quarter is targeted to be between $0.34 and $0.38. We are revising our full-year FFO per share guidance to $1.03 to $1.12, versus our previously issued guidance of $1.03 to $1.14, due to the expected termination of the leases with Intercontinental Hotels Group, Inc. (formerly Six Continents Hotels, Inc.) for our wholly owned Hampton Inn in Las Vegas, NV and our Windsor, CT Hilton Garden Inn in which we currently own a 49% joint venture interest. It is anticipated that on or about July 1, 2003, (i) the Hampton Inn will be leased by our taxable REIT subsidiary, Barclay Hospitality Services; (ii) the Hilton Garden Inn will be leased by an affiliate of the company; and, (iii) both properties will be managed by Alliance Hospitality Management, LLC.

"We are optimistic that we are near the end of a very difficult operating period for both Winston Hotels and the hotel industry," Winston added. "We are fortunate that new room supply is at a cyclical low, which should help speed the recovery. We remain conservative in our cost control measures and are actively seeking opportunities to make acquisitions with our joint venture partner, as well as actively pursuing mezzanine loan opportunities. We believe that we are prepared to move swiftly in response to changing economic conditions."

Winston Hotels' first quarter 2003 investor conference call is scheduled for 10 a.m. ET today. Interested parties may dial 888-428-4474 to listen to the call. The call also will be simulcast over the Internet via the company's web site, www.winstonhotels.com. The replay will be available on the company's Web site for 30 days and via telephone for seven days by calling 800-475-6701, access code 681906.

Raleigh, North Carolina-based Winston Hotels, Inc., is a real estate investment trust specializing in the development, acquisition, repositioning and active asset management of premium limited-service, upscale extended-stay and full-service hotels, with a portfolio increasingly weighted toward the leading brands in the lodging industry's upscale segment. The Company currently owns or is invested in 52 hotels with 7,200 rooms in 17 states, which includes: 44 wholly-owned properties with 6,141 rooms; a 49 percent ownership interest in three joint venture hotels with 453 rooms; a 13.05 percent ownership interest in two joint venture hotels with 215 rooms; and a mezzanine financing interest in three hotels with 391 rooms. For more information about Winston Hotels, visit the Winston Hotels web site, www.winstonhotels.com.

In addition to historical information, this press release contains forward-looking statements including, but not limited to statements referring to the company's 2003 dividend policy, the estimated RevPAR for the year and second quarter of the year, and estimated FFO per share for the year and second quarter of the year, the expected termination of leases with Intercontinental Group and the expected replacement of the management company. The reader can identify these statements by use of words like "may," "will," "expect," "project," "anticipate," "estimate," "target," "believe," or "continue" or similar expressions.

These statements represent the Company's judgment and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual operating results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward looking statements including, but not limited to, changes in general economic conditions, lower occupancy rates, lower average daily rates, acquisition risks, development risks including risk of construction delay, cost overruns, occupancy and other governmental permits, zoning, the increase of development costs in connection with projects that are not pursued to completion, the risk of non-payment of mezzanine loans, or the failure to make additional mezzanine debt investments and investments in distressed hotel opportunities. Other risks are discussed in the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including but not limited to its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2002, Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q and its other periodic reports.

This press release includes certain non-GAAP financial measures as defined under SEC rules. As required by SEC rules, the Company has provided a reconciliation in this press release of each non-GAAP financial measure to its most directly comparable GAAP measure. A further description of these non-GAAP measures can be found in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2002.

WHO sets criteria to lift travel advisory; Nine new Sars cases yesterday, but it wants to see fewer than five a day

SCMP - The World Health Organisation has set out three criteria that Hong Kong must meet to have the travel advisory imposed against it as a result of the Sars outbreak lifted, stressing that the number of new cases must be fewer than five for at least three consecutive days.

The requirement concerning new cases also involved the number of patients receiving treatment in Hong Kong hospitals being reduced to 60.

The WHO stipulated two other prerequisites. Firstly, Hong Kong must have stopped spreading the virus to other nations - something that has not happened for two or three weeks already. Secondly, the mode of transmission must be understood in each case.

While Hong Kong now knows the target it must aim for, a spokesman for the WHO separately warned that Hong Kong could find itself in trouble again if the outbreak on the mainland is not brought under control.

"China is the real danger," said Peter Cordingley, a spokesman for the WHO regional office in Manila, expressing concern that the outbreak in Hong Kong may be reignited by cross-border travel.

The announcement of the criteria came after a teleconference between Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food Yeoh Eng-kiong and WHO executive director of communicable disease David Heymann yesterday.

Dr Yeoh said the WHO applauded Hong Kong's "heroic" efforts in containing Sars.

The WHO emphasised, however, that the daily increase in new cases was the most important of the conditions.

In general, a lifting of the travel advisory for an area depends on there being no new case for 20 days. But Dr Yeoh said the WHO appreciated the fact that it was difficult for Hong Kong to achieve the zero-case target.

A spokesman for the Health, Welfare and Food Department added that the WHO said in addition to the three-day requirement, there must also be a gradual and stable decline in the daily number of new cases for 20 days.

"It doesn't help if we get 80 cases one day and then no case the day after," Dr Yeoh said.

The daily number of new Sars cases has been in gradual decline in the past five days, with single-digits reported since Sunday.

There were nine new cases yesterday, bringing the total number of infections to 1,646. A further six patients died, raising the death toll to 193. The number of patients still receiving treatment in hospital is 495.

The WHO imposed the unprecedented warning for travellers not to visit Hong Kong on April 2 at the height of the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome.

Travel advisories were also subsequently issued against Beijing, Guangdong and Shanxi provinces. An advisory against Toronto was lifted on April 29 after a Canadian government protest.

Dr Yeoh, who declined to predict when the advisory would be lifted, said the WHO also wanted the number of "active cases" under hospital treatment in Hong Kong to be reduced to below 60.

THE THREE STEPS

New cases have to fall below five a day, and active cases to 60

No exports of cases

Mode of transmission should be understood

Hospitality Management Summer Programme (HMSP) 2003 scheduled for 23rd consecutive year

Ecole hôtelière de Lausanne is conducting the annual Hospitality Management Summer Programme (HMSP) 2003 for the 23rd consecutive year

Originating at the world's oldest and foremost hospitality institution, one hundred and ten years of experience, HMSP was created in 1981, stemming from the need to improve organizational skills and management knowledge in the hospitality industry.  The programmes are organized and conducted by Lausanne Hospitality Consulting (LHC), a business unit of EHL.  LHC continuously refines and improves the offer to reflect current industry trends.

Some highlights of the Modules in HMSP 2003:

§         Strategic Marketing in the Global Economy:  a highly interactive module based on case studies in leading-edge marketing practices

§         Applying the Marketing Communication Mix:  unraveling the secrets of successful creative messages and promotional activities

§         Crisis Management in Hotels:  highly relevant in today’s market as it covers the essential elements of managing in times of major disruption; multiple business angles will be covered by subject matter experts

§         Facilitating Change and Innovation in Hospitality Management:  how to initiate and manage change for the short- and long-term in operational and strategic directions

§         Hospitality Financial Management:  the technicalities of the knowledge and practice of evaluating investment proposals and evaluating the capital structure of a hospitality going-concern

THE PROGRAMME

Operations

·          HACCP and Food Safety Management Principles

·          Elements of Food and Beverage Control

·          Crisis Management in Hotels

·          Advanced Technical Services Management for Hotels

Marketing

·          Strategic Marketing in the Global Economy

·          Applying the Marketing Communication Mix

·          Distribution Channels Management

Finance

·          Accounting for Management Decision Making

·          Hospitality Financial Management

Leadership

·          Facilitating Change and Innovation in Hospitality Management

For more information, please access LHC’s website at http://www.lhcconsulting.com or contact

Louis Lim  -  Senior Consultant 
Lausanne Hospitality Consulting
Ecole hôtelière de Lausanne
Direct Tel:  +41 21 785 1392
Direct Fax:  +41 21 785 1332
E-mail:  Louis.Lim@ehl.ch

Hong Kong Wharf hotel unit issues profit warning

IMail  -  Hong Kong Hotel and restaurant operator Harbour Centre Development has issued a profit warning for its half-year result, which one analyst said could drag down parent Wharf Holdings' earnings by as much as 6 per cent this year.

Harbour Centre Development, 67 per cent-owned by Wharf, said average occupancy rate of the Marco Polo Hong Kong Hotel had fallen to around 10 per cent in April, compared to 83 per cent for the same period last year.

The collapse in occupancy, which accounted for 80 per cent of the company's turnover and 52 per cent of earnings last year, was expected to negatively affect first-half earnings to June 30.

Directors did not know how long weak hotel room demand would persist, the company said. "Therefore, at present, the directors are unable to quantify the impact of SARS on the results.''

It said various measures had been taken to reduce costs and conserve cash resources without affecting the hotel's standard of service.

The company also believed it would have sufficient funds to meet its cashflow requirements in the foreseeable future.

Citigroup Smith Barney analyst Robert Fong said the profit warning would cause about a 6 per cent fall, or HK$130-150 million, in Wharf's estimated annual earnings of HK$2.9 billion, assuming that it generated no profits from hotels for this year.

"Wharf has exposure to Hong Kong residential sales and commercial leasing markets. Any further deterioration in residential demand could push property prices and stocks lower,'' Fong said. "Any worse-than-expected sales performance and prices for Bellagio Phase 2 and Sorrento Phase 2 could lead to downside.''

But Sun Hung Kai Financial Group analyst Eva Cheng said she did not foresee a significant impact on Wharf from Harbour Centre Development.

"The negative impact on the earnings of the whole Wharf group will only be mild, as the hotel division only accounted for about 4 per cent of its operation profit last year,'' she said.

Shares of Harbour Centre Development closed down 0.93 per cent to HK$5.35 yesterday. Wharf's shares closed up 1.07 per cent to HK$14.15.

Millennium Hilton at Ground Zero Reopens

The newly renovated Millenium Hilton in lower Manhattan welcomed guests yesterday with huge plasma-screen TVs, comfy king-sized beds -- and optimistic words from Gov. Pataki and Mayor Bloomberg. 

But nothing compared to the view. 

Nearly all of the luxury hotel's 565 rooms stare out at Ground Zero -- something that's impossible to miss, even though Hilton did not tout the unique sightlines at yesterday's grand reopening. 

The Millenium sits directly across Church St. from the pit, and yesterday it became the last hotel closed by the Sept. 11 attacks to reopen. 

Pataki hailed the moment as "a sign of what is to come." 

Bloomberg called it "a symbol of what is in store for New York." 

But for now, the Millenium will find itself competing with nearby hotels for a relatively slim number of guests. 

Manhattan hotels south of Union Square booked about 73 percent of their rooms last week, according to Cristyne Nicholas, president of NYC & Company, the city tourism office. 

That's down slightly from last year and way below the robust days prior to Sept. 11, 2001. 

"I used to sell out all the time," said Richard Islar, general manager of the Best Western Seaport Inn, at 33 Peck Slip. "Right now, I'm running at about 67 percent." 

The Best Western is less than a 10-minute walk from the Millenium. Islar typically would not be concerned about competing with a luxury hotel. But, he said, "with everyone playing these rate wars, it still may affect us." 

Bookings across the city -- and especially downtown -- plunged after the Sept. 11 attacks and were slow to rebound because of the poor economy. 

Apprehension over the war in Iraq undercut business again. 

Competition also has increased, with 3,192 new rooms opening since the attacks. 

Hanging in there Still, Nicholas and several hotel operators were optimistic bookings will pick up soon. 

"Nobody is doing that great," said Vivian Deuschl of Ritz-Carlton. "But anyone who predicted the demise of lower Manhattan was wrong." 

Ritz-Carlton opened a luxury hotel last year near Battery Park with sweeping views of the Statue of Liberty. It has done consistently better than anticipated. 

"The challenge downtown is that so many financial companies are no longer there," Deuschl said. 

The Millenium is upbeat about its future. About $31 million has been poured into the 55-story, black-glass hotel. And the majority of its 360 employees -- many of whom helped guests evacuate safely during the attacks -- have returned. 

"We've been working on and off at other hotels," said Sagir Ahmed, a restaurant server. "It's good to be back. 

... It's home sweet home." 

Mandarin Oriental says Hong Kong occupancy at unprecedented low levels

AFX  -  International hotels group Mandarin Oriental International Ltd said occupancy levels fell to unprecedented low levels in Hong Kong in March and April due to the effects on international travel of both the outbreak of SARS and the Iraq war, while occupancy has also fallen in Singapore and Bangkok.

Hotels in the United States and Europe have also been affected, but to a lesser extent, the group told shareholders at the Annual General Meeting in Bermuda, adding that it is still too early to assess the full impact of these effects on the 2003 full year results.

"In the meantime, the Group is making every effort to reduce costs and defer discretionary capital expenditure while maintaining standards," the company said.

It said its development strategy remains on track and its financial position is sound.

Trading in January and February was in line with the same period in the previous year, the company said