WTM :  Smoke without fire: There're lots in London

TravelWeeklyEast Report

Travel advisories are a joke, says Yeoh Siew Hoon as she wonders who should be placing travel advisories on whom.

November 8, Friday. "Chaos poison gas terror alert".

November 9, Saturday. "Fears of terrorist attacks hit peak".

These were the headlines in The Times that greeted me when I arrived in London for World Travel Market.

Newspapers reported a warning by the British Foreign Office, which said it had intercepted intelligence of an impending attack by Al-Qaeda terrorists on London. Talk of a "dirty" bomb dominated the papers.

A report told citizens what to do in case a chemical bomb exploded in a crowded area. "If you are outdoors, run indoors. If you are indoors, run outdoors."

At the theatre Saturday night, we were at the bar when a public announcement came on. It started with, "Ladies and gentlemen, we have an important announcement to make."

You could have heard a pin drop in the bar. Enthusiastic chatter and raucous laughter gave way to an almost palpable air of fear.

You should have heard the sighs of relief when the announcement continued with, "This is a no-smoking theatre. Kindly refrain from smoking."

Across Europe, I hear reports that security alerts have been posted on almost all forms of transport - trains, ferries, aeroplanes.

It brought home the irony of the situation - who should be placing travel advisories on whom?

More than irony, I am finding this a ridiculous joke? Why are European countries placing travel advisories on all of South-east Asia when their entire continent is in as much danger of terrorist attacks as our region?

Why are we targeting each other when we should be united in targeting our common enemy?

I am in London, capital of an empire, which was an expert when it came to practising the "divide and rule" principle over its former colonies. It seems they have overlooked that Al-Qaeda is also following similar tactics.

Post-September 11, it pitted America against the rest? "Either you are for us or against us". Post the Bali blast, it has pitted Australians/Westerners against Asians. "Do not go where Westerners gather" is the message contained in some government warnings.

In placing sweeping travel advisories on South-east Asia, Western governments are in danger of pitting West against East.

There is a growing feeling of injustice among South-east Asian governments that they are being unfairly singled out in travel advisories.

Travel is the lifeblood of many regional economies. It is the one business that addresses the root cause of many of the problems we are facing today - poverty.

Travel suppliers from Asia have gathered this week at World Travel Market to sell their products and destinations in a market whose government has warned their citizens against travelling to Asia. The suppliers would be justified in questioning the fairness and logic of these travel advisories.

Because, let's face it, if you read the newspapers, London is a dangerous place to be in right now. Even more dangerous than Phuket, I reckon.

Source:  TravelWeeklyEast.com

WTTC Forecasts Strong Fourth Quarter 2002 and Solid Growth in 2003 For Travel & Tourism

The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) released a series of new economic reports today with research produced by Oxford Economic Forecasting (OEF) that shows a modest increase in Travel & Tourism activity for 2002 compared to forecasts released in March of this year, and solid expectations for growth in Travel & Tourism in 2003.

For most of 2002, output has been running slower than in 2001 as demand has been hit first by worries over travelling as a result of September 11, 2001 and, second, by spending cutbacks associated with the global economic downturn. However, fourth quarter output is running well above that seen in the immediate aftermath of September 11, so the end-of-year estimates are looking more positive than they were in March of this year. In fact, the relative strength of consumer spending in many countries compared with expectations earlier in the year has helped maintain personal Travel & Tourism spending, and we now see industry output in 2002 as flat rather than the declining levels we were expecting in the spring.

In our forecasts prepared in March 2002, we had foreseen record growth in 2003. These forecasts have been dampened by the bombing in Bali, continuing risks from terrorism evident in several countries, possible military action against Iraq and a more fragile world economic recovery. Still, the updated WTTC/OEF forecast for 2003 shows a solid 4.1 per cent real growth for the year.

To address the continuing terrorism concerns, WTTC is host to a high-level Tourism Security Meeting at World Travel Market on Wednesday, November 13. This by-invitation-only meeting will involve ministers, ambassadors, key industry representatives and security experts. Panellists include business leaders from Carey International and TUI, as well as the Tourism Minister of Jordan and Lord King of Bridgewater. Findings from the meeting will be released late on Wednesday afternoon.

The end-of-year update of the 2002 TSA research has been posted on the WTTC website (http://www.wttc.org/measure.htm) for immediate access. WTTC President Jean-Claude Baumgarten said: The fundamental message from this special WTTC/OEF update is that the world Travel & Tourism industry will need more time to recover from the impacts of September 11 than we expected at the start of the year. Although 2002 turned out a little better than we predicted in March, we still expect 2003 will be a solid year of growth (4.1 per cent in real terms).

The World Travel & Tourism Council is the forum for global business leaders in Travel & Tourism comprising the presidents, chairs and CEOs of 100 of the world's foremost companies. It is the only body representing the private sector in all parts of the Travel & Tourism industry worldwide.

News@PATA

GOLD AWARDS DEADLINE: DECEMBER 15, 2002

December 15, 2002 is the entry deadline for the 2003 PATA Gold Awards -- the premier awards programme that recognises excellence and innovation in the Pacific Asia travel industry. Award recipients will be honoured during a gala luncheon at the 52nd PATA Annual Conference in Bali, Indonesia. In order to attract entries by smaller operators, PATA has introduced awards in new sub-categories such as Government/Destination (National or State/City); Carrier (Regional, International, Domestic); and Industry (Hotel, Car Rental, Attraction, Tour Operator/Travel Agent/DMC/PCO, Distribution Network, Convention/Exhibition Venue, and Credit Card Company). PATA's Gold Awards are sponsored by the Macau Government Tourist Office. Details and entry forms are available at www.pata.org. For more information, contact PATA Manager-Communications, Ms. Paveena Olansuksakul. Fax: (66-2) 658-2010. E-mail: goldawards@pata.th.com.

HONOURS NOMINATIONS ACCEPTED UNTIL DECEMBER 1

The PATA Honours Committee is accepting nominations for Life Membership and Merit Awards until December 1. Award recipients will be recognised at the 52nd PATA Annual Conference in Bali, April 13-17, 2003. To download the criteria and nomination form for Life Membership, visit http://www.pata.org/ftp/life_form.pdf. To download the criteria and nomination form for Merit Awards, visit http://www.pata.org/ftp/merit_form.pdf. Or contact Mr. KC Sim to request the forms. Fax: (66-2) 658-2010. E-mail: kcsim@pata.th.com.

PTM 2003 FLOOR PLANS AVAILABLE

Seller registrations are now open for PATA Travel Mart 2003 (October 1-3, 2003) at Suntec, Singapore. Floor plans are available for space reservations, with PATA members being given preferential allocations. For further information e-mail sheila@pata.th.com or tik@pata.th.com.

INVITATION TO MICE PROFESSIONALS

The inaugural PATA-CEI Asia Pacific business event ("MICE") survey is currently online at http://www.oneworldi.net/ceipata/micesurvey.asp. The aim of the survey is to assess the health of the corporate business event sector in the Pacific Asia region. PATA encourages all industry operators associated with the business event (MICE) industry to fill out the online survey. For further information e-mail johnk@pata.th.com.

PATA CONFERENCE JUST 1,500 WORDS AWAY

Young Tourism Professionals who are employees or students of PATA member organisations are invited in 1,500 words or less, to describe their vision for Pacific Asia tourism in 2025. The winner will receive a round-trip economy class ticket to Bali on Singapore Airlines, four nights accommodation at the Sheraton Nusa Indah and full PATA Conference registration. The Conference takes place April 13-17, 2003. The deadline for submissions to PATA headquarters in Bangkok is December 13, 2002. Please contact Mr. Aaron Tan at aaron@pata.th.com for essay guidelines and a registration form.

PATA SWEDEN CHAPTER TO TOUR JAVA AND BALI

The PATA Sweden Chapter, in cooperation with Garuda Indonesia, has organised an educational tour to Java and Bali to be held late November 2002. For more information please contact Mr. Mats Jonsson, PATA Sweden Chapter education officer at travel.pmj@swipnet.se.

SEMONE TO DELIVER ASIAN TOURISM OVERVIEW

PATA Vice President-Development, Mr. Peter Semone, will deliver a presentation entitled, "Asian Tourism in a New Global Paradigm" at the Boao Forum for Asia to be held in Guilin, China (PRC) November 17-20. Five hundred delegates comprising political leaders, policy makers, tourism officials and private sector operators are expected to attend the event which is being hosted by the China National Tourism Administration, Asia Cooperation Dialogue and the Boao Forum for Asia. For further information visit www.bfatourism.org.

NEW PROGRAMME FOR HOSPITALITY EXECUTIVES

The School of Hotel and Tourism Management (HTM) of The Hong Kong Polytechnic University (PolyU) has launched "Hong Kong Winter School 2003." The January 14-18, 2003 workshop will cover a wide range of service-related topics and their impact on both business and profitability. Topics include the management of service quality, productivity management, leadership, hotel sales, branding, food and beverage, hotel finance, hotel public relations, marketing research and negotiations. For further enquiries, please contact Mr. Tony Tse, School of Hotel & Tourism Management, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University. E-mail: hmttse@polyu.edu.hk. Or visit www.polyu.edu.hk/htm/main_update.htm.

TWO SHOWS FOR INDIA OUTBOUND

India’s Outbound Travel Mart will take place in Mumbai, February 15-17, 2003 and in New Delhi, February 20-22, 2003. The organisers expect 40 countries to attend, up from 24 in 2002. The aim is to let overseas destinations take advantage of India’s rapidly emerging outbound sector. For further information visit http://www.fairfest.com/ttf-otm/index.htm.

PATA STRATEGIC INTELLIGENCE CENTRE WORLDWATCH

** In the United States, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is working on a navigation system that will let planes fly closer together, prevent crashes into mountains and become part of a system to prevent hijackers flying aircraft into buildings or other structures. The FAA claims that the system's accuracy and reliability allows aircraft to safely navigate to any spot on earth.

** Chinese officials have discovered a new 80-kilometre section of the Great Wall of China in northwestern China (PRC). This portion of the wall was built in 1531 and was gradually buried by sands that swept across the arid landscape. From its starting point in the northwestern province of Gansu, the Great Wall spans 6,000 kilometres across lands which dynastic Chinese emperors considered vulnerable to attack.

** Government officials of Hong Kong SAR, China (PRC) and the U.S. have signed an air-service pact whereby U.S. airlines can use Hong Kong SAR as a base in Asia, dropping off or picking up passengers and cargo before flying on to third destinations in Asia. In return, Hong Kong SAR’s airlines will receive fifth-freedom rights enabling them to fly to many new destinations in the U.S.

** According to a survey conducted by the Hong Kong SAR-based Far Eastern Economic Review, two out of three Asians are saving money by cutting back on evenings out and leisure travel. Many Asian executives are also spending less and saving more, with global recession affecting their patterns of consumption.

PATANET QUICK LINKS

Register for the 52nd PATA Annual Conference (April 13-17, 2003) in Bali, Indonesia at http://www.pata.org/frame.cfm?pageid=2&ebid=38.

Find out about the 26th PATA Travel Mart (October 1-3, 2003 at Suntec, Singapore) at http://www.pata.org/frame.cfm?pageid=2&ebid=37.

View special promotions at http://www.seeyouinpacificasia.com.

Visit PATA-member airlines at http://www.pata.org/frame.cfm?pageid=4.

Explore our destination links at http://www.pata.org/frame.cfm?pageid=3.

Order PATA publications at http://www.pata.org/frame3.cfm?pageid=6.

Read all of PATA's press releases at http://www.pata.org/frame.cfm?pageid=12.

Post a job opening or find a position at http://www.pata.org/frame.cfm?pageid=7.

WTM:  Hold your fire, suppliers told

TravelWeeklyEast  -  The Far East must strive to protect its market share or risk losing business to the Caribbean and the Indian Ocean.

Chris May of Hayes & Jarvis said the Caribbean and Indian Ocean were the big winners in the current crisis.

And he said while tour operators like Hayes & Jarvis and Kuoni could send customers booked for longhaul holidays elsewhere, "we have to maintain an even spread of business".

Speaking at the TravelWeekly Roundtable, May said it was vital the region got together to protect its market share. Business once lost was difficult to recover, he said.

"Price and promotion must work together. When things get bad, that’s when I spend money. Start spending your money in January and February – that’s the peak booking season, that’s when the customer decides where to go."

On the issue of prices, May urged South-east Asian suppliers not to do anything till January and February. "If you go out now with a price message, you add fuel to the fire."

May said that in general, the UK winter market was down 10 percent for longhaul but longhaul for next summer was up 14 percent.

"Don’t try to push water up the hill. No matter what you do, you won’t get the business back now. Wait till things settle down and then use price and promotions sensibly."

Source:  TravelWeeklyEast.com

Technology Issues In Restaurants –  Summary Of FS/TEC 2002 Presentation

Written By:  Richard D. Williams & Matthew Williams   HVS International

Technology can impact restaurant profitability and value.  To understand how technology can generate and impact income first requires an understanding of the unidirectional flow in a restaurant.

Unidirectional flow is best understood by examining the following flow chart:

The first box represents all of the raw products that are received by the restaurant, such as steaks, vegetables, wine, etc.  The products then are stored, as represented by the second box.  The products may be stored in various places within the restaurant, depending on the type of product.  For example, liquor may be stored in a locked storeroom and at the bar, canned goods and paper products in a storeroom, and fresh food items in a walk-in cooler. As the products are needed by various people within the restaurant, the products are issued.  The issuing process, as represented by the third box, may be a formal requisition process, or may be the simple act of an employee going into a storeroom or walk-in cooler and taking product.  The product is then used by the employee to prepare a finished product that will be served to the restaurant guest.  These two steps are represented by the fourth and fifth boxes.  After the product is served, the server collects payment from the guest, and the owner deposits the receipts in his bank.  These last two steps are represented by the sixth and seventh boxes.

At each of the steps on the flow chart, there is an opportunity for something to go wrong, which may result in the subsequent steps not occurring. Studies have shown that approximately 25% of employees are not honest and will attempt to steal from an employer no matter what controls are in place, 25% of employees are honest and will not steal from an employer, and 50% of employees are somewhat honest and will steal only if it is so easy to steal that they would feel foolish if they did not steal.  The key is the implementation of controls.  With the advent of technology, controls are simpler to establish and monitor, than ever before.

Providing real-time inventory reports used to be impossible due to numerous incompatibilities between POS systems, inventory systems, product ordering equipment, actual product invoices, and handwritten food preparation sheets.  Current technological advancements have put all of these instruments onto one operating system platform, making communication between these five components simultaneous.  This has also changed management’s role in operations; instead of managers writing prep sheets at the beginning of each shift, placing orders early in the morning or late at night, and performing hourly-paid employee duties, managers are now able to use computers to automatically generate prep sheets and order product through use of established pars, and immediately convert invoices into inventory, decreasing the number of hours in the office and in the walk-ins taking inventory, and increasing the ability to manage by walking around (“MBWA”), which, in turn, decreases employees’ time spent unsupervised.  Future trends will include remote PDAs that will increase accuracy in taking inventory, track product shelf lives, and, once again, reduce repetitive management functions.

Technology can vary in price, and for many restaurants, the question of how to finance technology acquisitions must be considered.  Predictable methods of financing technology include the use of net free cash flow from the business; the use of bank loans, either a specific term loan for the acquisition of the item, or use of an existing corporate facility; and equipment leases. Some more innovative ideas include phasing the purchases so that you do not buy the components until they can be installed and used; timing the purchases based on seasonal discounts or on your available cash flow; purchasing on the second-hand market, either from failed restaurants or from other industries (since the hospitality industry frequently lags behind other industries in the acquisition and use of technology); use of web-based POS systems, instead of full in-house systems; barter transactions; showcase agreements, where the restaurant agrees to showcase the technology product and provide publicity for the vendor; referral relationships, where the restaurant becomes a reference site for the vendor; and partnering, where a restaurant joins with its peers to increase buying power.

Technology purchases can be expensive, and need to be justified to the owner of the restaurant.  Two methods are the traditional discounted cash flow/return on investment approach, and the value-added dimension.  In the first method, we calculate the increased income (from either additional revenues or reductions in operating costs, adjusted for the time value of money) that is likely to be produced by the technology, and then divide the increased income by the amount of the capital expenditure. This translates into a return on investment percentage.  The amount of the return on investment will depend on the restaurant’s ability to convert technology into efficiency, the company’s target return, and the restaurant’s desire to provide better service to its guests. The value-added dimension is hard to quantify; items to consider include the perception of guests of a restaurant using current or dated technology; identifying and measuring key performance indicators in a profit and loss statement; and use of the performance indicators for training and marketing.

Technology can increase the value of a restaurant indirectly.  If technology results in increased net income, then the value of the restaurant under the income capitalization approach to value will increase. For example, if net operating income increases by $10,000, then the restaurant’s value will increase by $105,263 using a 9.5% capitalization rate. If you are looking to refinance, the increased value is likely to result in additional borrowing capacity.

If you would like more information on the HVS Food & Beverage Services division, please contact Richard Williams at rwilliams@hvsinternational.com. For information on the HVS Technology Strategies division, please contact Liz Lauer at llauer@hvsinternational.com.  Website:  http://www.hvsinternational.com

The preceding article is a summary of a presentation recently given by Richard Williams to the FS/TEC 2002 conference in Orlando, Florida.  

Tourist arrivals decrease as Nepal's tourist season begins

eTurbo.com  -  The number of international visitors to Nepal in October, the start of the Himalayan kingdom's main tourist season, declined nearly by 18 percent compared with the same period last year. According to the statistics by Nepal Tourism Board, this October saw 27,172 tourists visiting Nepal, while the figure in October last year stood at 33,037. During the first 10 months of this year, Nepal received 177,605 tourists, down 31.3 percent from 258,605 in the corresponding period last year.

Nepali tourist industry's traditional markets such as the United States, Britain, Germany, France and the Netherlands got steep declines of 36 percent, 37 percent, 18 percent, 33 percent and 51 percent respectively in October. However, this October saw the increase of tourists from some non-traditional markets such as Spain, Italy and some Asian countries and regions, especially China's mainland and Taiwan Province, Japan and Bangladesh. Most of the tourist entrepreneurs in Nepal blame the declining of tourism on political instability and security problems. The tourist arrivals in the country have severely plummeted due to security concerns since June last year. As many as 11 organizations of Nepal's tourism industry have recently appealed for the withdrawal of the pre-announced three- day "Nepal bandh" (national strike) on Nov. 11-13, which was called by the anti- government insurgents.

"The bandh will be suicidal for Nepal's ailing tourist and hospitality industry and may even cause the two reeling industries to collapse. Nepal's image in the international market will also further deteriorate," complained Narendra Bajracharya, president of the Hotel Association of Nepal. On the other hand, tourist entrepreneurs believe that political instability and security problems are not the only factors responsible for the decline of the tourist industry, there are other important issues which are nagging the industry more. The quality of service, regular flight services, and new places for trekking, rafting and travelling also have to be given priority, if Nepal is to revive its tourist industry, said Aditya Baral, publicity manager of Nepal Tourism Board. "On top of that, the lack of regular flights to China is hampering the tapping of that lucrative market," he noted, explaining that "the Chinese tourists found the cost of coming to Nepal relatively higher than in other countries."

Similarly, most of the tourists from Europe and America also have to change several flights before they land in Nepal, because there are only two airlines connecting Nepal with European countries. With an aim to aid the ailing tourist industry, the Nepali government has started formal negotiations with the United States, Israel and Croatia in an attempt to sign new bilateral Air Service Agreements, and will also hold talks with related organizations of China and Japan respectively in a bid to review Nepal's existing agreements with the two countries. However, Baral pointed out that the flights will be increased only if there are more passengers taking on, otherwise no airline will continue serving in a loss. Meanwhile, other sectors such as transportation, people's participation at the tourist sites and publicity of the new tourist attractions including adventure tourism, paragliding, jungle safari and others also need to be advertised and promoted to attract foreign tourists. "Lack of budget has been the major constraint to publicize Nepal's full potential in adventure, trekking and mountaineering," Baral explained, adding "Anyhow, quality service is one of the main points for the revival of Nepal's tourist industry."

Source:  eTurbo.com

Beijing rides away with theme park

It's not Shanghai, it's but Beijing.

China Daily - Contrary to months of rumours, US-based Universal Studios has quickly reached an agreement in principle with Beijing to construct the Chinese mainland's first world-class theme park.

The agreement must be approved by the State Development Planning Commission (SDPC). Capital Tourism Group (CTG) officials confirmed last week that the organization will co-operate with Universal Studios to build the US$900-million, 11,115-mu (741-acre) theme park in suburban Beijing.

CTG and Universal Studios are also seeking domestic and international investors. CTG sources said the agreement was signed last month, and had been submitted to the SDPC for approval.

Officials at Universal Studios were not immediately available for comment. The park is expected to be open before 2008, when Beijing will host the Olympic Games.

Insiders predict construction will begin before the end of next year to ensure the park is operational before the Olympics. CTG has conducted feasibility studies on Shijingshan and Tongzhou districts, Duan Qiang, chair of CTG's board, told Business Weekly.

Universal Studios reportedly prefers Yanjiao, Tongzhou District, but officials from both districts said they had not heard from either CTG or the company.

"If it was true, we would have received some information, because it would be such a large real estate project, and would greatly influence our district's development plan," said a Tongzhou official, on condition of anonymity.

Hong Kong-based Hutchison Whampoa Ltd, led by tycoon Li Ka-shing, has expressed interest in such a large-scale theme park for the special administrative region.

Hutchison Whampoa intends to participate in the project considering its huge market potential, said Du Zhiqiang, board member and general manager.

"But there have not been official negotiations with either the Chinese or US sides," Du said.

Analysts suggest Hutchison Whampoa might use its joint venture, Beijing Tourism Development Co Ltd, established on October 17, to participate in the project.

The joint venture is composed of Beijing Enterprises Holding Ltd, which controls 40 per cent; CTG, with a 32.5-per-cent stake; and Hutchison Whampoa (China) Ltd, with a 27.5-per-cent share.

The joint venture was established to develop large tourism projects ahead of the Olympic Games, and to list either in Hong Kong or abroad.

The JV's assets are Beijing Badaling Tourism Development Co Ltd, the Great Wall Hotel, Jianguo Hotel, Longqingxia Tourism Development Co Ltd and the Holiday Inn Civic Centre in San Francisco.

Shanghai officials have also discussed with Universal Studios construction of a theme park, Tang Long, Beijing Municipal Government's deputy secretary-general, told Business Weekly.

But since it is expected a Disney theme park will open in Shanghai in future, the city might not be the best location for Universal Studios, Tang said.

"Tianjin and Shenyang also want to work with foreign partners to set up theme parks," Tang said.

"But Beijing got the jump. In terms of both tourism spots and resources, Beijing has an edge," Duan said.

China's fast-growing tourism market has attracted foreign theme park operators' attention, and generated competition among several Chinese cities.

About 11.2 million overseas tourists visited China in 2001, and there were about 780 million domestic travellers, indicate China National Tourism Association statistics.

China Daily

Taiwan offers China tourism incentive

Taiwan will relax restrictions on Chinese tourists if Beijing adds the island to its list of overseas sites which mainland sightseers are allowed to visit.

The China Times newspaper reports the relaxation, aimed at attracting more mainland visitors, is expected to be discussed between tourist delegations from the two sides at a Shanghai travel fair opening on Thursday.

Only around 1,000 mainland Chinese tourists have visited the island since Taipei allowed such visits earlier this year. Another 153,000 Chinese had travelled to the island in the first nine months of this year for other purposes such as family reunions, cultural and sports exchange programs.

Taiwan eased a half-century ban on Chinese sightseers to boost the local tourist industry, allowing pleasure visits by those living overseas for more than four years and permitting those making overseas business trips to stop via third places.

However, the chairman of Taiwan's Association of Travel Agents, Tseng Sheng-hai, said Taiwan's incentives were not enough to attract mainland tourists.

ABC News Australia